As more information comes out on the developments in regards to the US missile defense shield in Europe it is becoming quite clear that despite the claims of critics, missile defense in Europe is not being scrapped:
House Republican leader Rep. John Boehner of Ohio agreed. “It shows a willful determination to continue ignoring the threat posed by some of the most dangerous regimes in the world, while taking one of the most important defenses against Iran off the table.”
Anticipating that reaction, Gates said that “those who say we are scrapping missile defense in Europe are either misinformed or misrepresenting the reality of what we are doing. … I believe this new approach provides a better missile defense capability for our forces in Europe, for our European allies and eventually for our homeland than the program I recommended almost three years ago. It is more adapted to the threat we see developing and takes advantage of new technical capabilities available to us today.” [Army Times]
Here is why the reaction of critics is not justified:
Raytheon’s land-based SM-3 program is the biggest winner from the administration’s decision to change its approach to defending allies against Iranian missiles.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and former head of Strategic Command, both cited the system as a key part in why the administration changed its mind during their Thursday morning briefing.
Of course, Gates and Cartwright also made very clear that Iran had played a mighty significant part in changing the American approach. The 2006 intelligence assessment that Iran would fairly soon deploy intercontinental ballistic missiles has been superseded. Today, Cartwright said, the real threat does not come from four or five rogue state ICBMs but from literally hundreds of short- and medium-range missiles capable of striking Israel, Europe and US forces in the region. Hoss Cartwright noted that the Shahab 3 is “developing more rapidly than expected.”
The march of missile defense in Europe will now look like this. In 2011, Patriots will be deployed, and a regular force of two or three SM-3-bearing ships will patrol the North Sea and the Mediterranean, Cartwright said. The next phase, beginning in 2015, will lead to the deployment of SM-3 1Bs, the next iteration of the missile, along with the first deployment of the land-based SM-3. In 2018 the country will send SM-3 2s ashore and at sea. Finally, in 2020, the U.S. will deploy SM-3 2Bs.
In addition to the threat, cost drove the decision calculus, Cartwright said, ticking off these facts: a PAC interceptor costs $3.3 million; a THAAD missile costs $9 million; an SM-3 goes for about $10 million, and upgraded SM-3 will cost $13 million to $15 million; the Ground Based Interceptor previously planned for Europe would have cost $70 million each. [DOD Buzz]
To summarize what is going on here is that a proven system the SM-3 missile which is currently sea based on AEGIS platforms is going to be converted into a land based platform to replace the previously planned installation of ground based interceptors in Poland. The development of land based SM-3 missiles has long been discussed for Israel and now is becoming a reality for Europe and probably Israel as well.
Additionally the 360 degree X-band radar that was to be built in the Czech Republic will now no longer be built and instead replaced with a forward based X-band radar. The 360 degree radar would have been very similar to the SBX radar currently stationed in the Pacific and the Russians were very concerned about this radar radiating over their territory. The forward based X-band radar is a directional radar that is used for the THAAD missile system that also has two lone forward based radars in Japan and Israel. This radar is reportedly going to be based in the Caucaus region which most likely means in the nation of Georgia. In addition to the X-band radar and SM-3 land based interceptors the missile shield will be further augmented with PATRIOT missile batteries and AEGIS SM-3 equipped ships based out of the Mediteranian and North Sea.
So basically the Pentagon is fielding a proven capability to protect Europe from the Iranian missile threat while at the same time eliminating Russian objections while dramatically cutting costs because AEGIS SM-3 missiles costs $60 million dollars less then the GBI’s. This is in actuallity a great idea and one that people seriously concerned with national security should support.
